Why the CDC, the WHO, and the IOC say “The Show Must Go On” in Brazil.

Posted on | May 30, 2016 | Comments Off on Why the CDC, the WHO, and the IOC say “The Show Must Go On” in Brazil.

Rio-Olympics

Mike Magee

NYU Ethicist Arthur Caplan (formerly from Penn), is in the news again. This time, representing 149 other worldwide scientists who are advising the WHO and CDC to pressure the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to postpone this summer’s 2016 Summer Olympics due to begin on July 5th.

The 10,500 athletes from around the world (including 550 from the US), won’t be alone. About 600,000 out-of-town guests are expected to attend, coming from small and large countries around the globe. Over half the athletes will be women, all of child-bearing age. Caution would seem to support the letter writing scientists, one of whom recently commented in the Harvard Public Health Review that, “Rio is not on the fringes of the outbreak, but inside its heart”. And data from the government itself supports as much – with 26,000 individuals believed infected in Rio, the highest counts in all of Brazil. So what’s with the CDC and the WHO?

Their argument is that, even though a half million expected visitors (including 200,000 from the US) seems large, it is less than 2% of the current travel load to some 40 countries already on the Zika travel warning list. Such warnings already exist for 60 countries worldwide. Dumping the Olympics, they argue, will not halt the spread of this mosquito borne disease, now known to be transmissible sexually between humans. Furthermore, they note that the average monthly numbers traveling between the US and Brazil exceeds 235,000. So that cat is pretty much out of the bag. Finally, they note that it is winter in Brazil, and the mosquitos are less active. But the fact that Dengue Fever (a proxy for Zika) numbers are currently spiking in the Olympic Park neighborhood of Barre da Tijuca, at 6X the rate of last year, hasn’t helped that particular argument.

Testament to the spreadability of the Zika virus is the fact that there are already 1100 cases in the US and territories, including 300 pregnant women (122 in Puerto Rico alone). The official CDC advisory says to avoid traveling to high risk areas if pregnant or trying to become pregnant, and tells partners to use condoms or abstain from sex during the visit and for a few months after. That’s probably not going to work real well.

The quotes from the WHO and the CDC have been pretty definitive:

From the WHO: “There is no public health justification for postponing or cancelling the games.”

From the CDC Director:“We don’t see from a public health standpoint any reason to cancel the Olympics. There’s been some claims that if the Olympics happen, it’s going to disseminate the virus everywhere, it’s going to amplify it. Well, we looked at the numbers. The Olympics account for less than one quarter of 1 percent of all travel to Zika-affected areas.”

For now, US athletes are hanging tough. But others are nervous about their health and safety, including 11 senators who have asked the IOC to outline safety precautions that their infectious disease advisory committee has put in place. The response: real time information updates, a mosquito bit prevention kit, air-conditioning on site, and long-sleeved pants and shirts. The CDC is also poised to rapidly test any who present with symptoms of Zika, probably with blood and urine tests conducted on samples shipped back to the states.

The IOC, Brazil, and the rest of the world say the games must go on, irrespective of the objections of Dr. Caplan and his colleagues.